2026 · current-year route
Capital is moving.
Breadth is not.
US startups raised $412.7B in H1, already above every prior full year. AI and mega-rounds explain most of that record, so read it as a concentration regime.
Open Q2 reportH1 allocation split
Two markets inside one total
The split uses the reported 86% AI share. It is a sector concentration view, not a performance forecast.
AI & ML$355.9B
Everything else$56.8B
Macro condition board
Restrictive rates, narrow allocation.
Policy rate is context. The direct evidence is the concentration of dollars in AI and $100M+ rounds.
- Fed target upper bound
- 3.75% FRED · 2026-07-20
- Capital concentration
- Extreme Mega-rounds = 87.5%
- Sector breadth
- Narrow AI = 86% of value
- Data condition
- Confirmed H1 Not full-year
Risk: WebSocket speed does not improve source quality. A new announcement can be pushed instantly and still be provisional, duplicated, or later revised.
connecting
Capital signal stream
WebSocket pushes observations as they arrive. “Replay” means sourced historical events are being demonstrated; it is not a new deal announcement.
H1 US venture deal value reached $412.7B
The half-year total exceeded every prior full-year US venture total, while mega-rounds kept breadth narrow.
AI absorbed $355.9B in H1
AI represented about 86% of US venture deal value through June.
Crypto startups raised roughly $4B in Q1
Trading, exchange, investing and lending captured roughly $2.6B across the quarter.
Policy rate remains restrictive
Fed target upper bound: 3.75%. Treat this as macro context, not a causal signal by itself.